Should Europe Lift Its Arms Embargo on China?

By LEO CENDROWICZ / BRUSSELS Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2010

Barack Obama is not the only one with a China-size headache. Leaders in Europe have also tangled with Beijing recently on everything from trade to climate change to Iran. But perhaps the thorniest issue between Europe and China is the arms embargo that's been in place ever since the bloody suppression of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.

The E.U. is now rethinking this 20-year-old arms ban. Spain, which holds the E.U.'s rotating presidency until July 1, has called for a review of the embargo as a way of improving relations with Beijing. "We are all aware of the new role which China is assuming in the world," said Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos. This is great news for China, especially given its fury over the recent decision by the U.S. to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province.

(See a brief history of U.S. Presidents in China.)

China says the lifting of the embargo is more symbolic than anything else — it would signal a European acceptance of the country's status as an equal player on the world stage. The weapons ban has certainly not prevented China from becoming a military power — its annual defense budget officially stands at $70 billion, although the Pentagon believes the real figure to be twice as high. Rather, Beijing sees the embargo as outdated and insulting, considering the other nations currently subject to an E.U. arms ban are all pariah states — Congo, North Korea, Iran, Burma, Somalia, Sudan and Zimbabwe. (A similar E.U. embargo against Uzbekistan was lifted in October, despite continuing concerns about human rights in the Central Asian nation.)

And Europe could certainly benefit from better relations with Beijing, which has been dismissive of E.U. diplomatic requests and disdainful of European attempts to be more of a global leader in recent years. In 2008, China canceled a summit with E.U. leaders after French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with the exiled Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama. Then, last December, China executed a British citizen for drug-smuggling — the first European to be executed in China in 50 years — despite condemnations from the E.U. and pleas from supporters that he be spared because of his mental illness. And at last year's Copenhagen climate conference, E.U. leaders were shocked by China's scorn for European efforts at securing a meaningful commitment to cut emissions.

The harsh tone from Beijing stings even more since the E.U. had hoped its new Lisbon Treaty — intended to create a more streamlined institution with a strong President and Foreign Minister speaking on its behalf — would ensure the bloc would have a bigger presence on the global stage. But China has historically sought to exploit the E.U.'s internal divisions to fuel its economic growth, not deal with the bloc as a whole. All of the E.U.'s biggest members have cozied up to Beijing at one point or another in the hopes of guaranteeing lucrative trade deals.

(See pictures of China mourning the potential loss of Google.)

But the tide is now turning in Europe. Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform, published a paper last month arguing that Europeans need to agree on a single message in their dealings with China so that Beijing can't play a game of divide and conquer. At the same time, he said, the E.U. should "abandon the fiction of a 'strategic partnership,'" which cannot be meaningful with such divergent value systems, and focus on a limited number of issues on which China and the E.U. can find agreement.

Lifting the arms ban may not be so simple, however, with strong resistance already developing against the idea. Many E.U. countries are worried about China's increasingly threatening behavior toward Taiwan and are reluctant to sanction an arms buildup that would further isolate the island. France, for one, had called for the embargo to be lifted in 2004, but now says it should stay in place. The European Parliament is also opposed to ending the ban so long as Beijing continues to sell arms to countries like Zimbabwe and Sudan, whose governments the West accuses of committing or supporting violent acts against civilians. And the E.U. would also have to think carefully about antagonizing the U.S., which has its own arms embargo on China.

François Godement, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations and president of the Asia Centre at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris, says the Spanish bid to review the embargo is especially ill-conceived since there has been no mention of trying to squeeze concessions from China first. "There seems to be some expectation of future Chinese goodwill of an unspecified nature," he says. "But China has steadfastly refused to give anything in exchange." Godement says Europeans have long deluded themselves that China will accept them as equal partners when, in fact, Beijing will likely continue probing the bloc for weaknesses and division. He says the ban should only be lifted after Europe takes a long and hard look at its China policy. "If there is one good thing about China's strident tone, it has been to help the E.U.'s big countries realize that they cannot go it alone and they need a united front," he says.


《时代》：欧洲应该解除对中国的武器禁运么?

作者：LEO CENOROWICZ （《时代》周刊） 译者： BRUSSELES Susan

不只奥巴马对中国问题深感头痛，欧洲领导人也深陷跟北京之间各方面的纠纷，包括贸易，气候变化，伊朗问题。但是也许欧洲和中国之间最棘手的问题是从1989年天安门事件开始的武器禁运。

　欧盟开始重新考虑这20年的武器禁令。西班牙作为欧盟这个阶段的轮值主席国，呼吁重新审视武器禁运的问题以改善同北京的关系。“我们意识到北京在世界上承担的新的角色，”西班牙外交大臣Moratinos说。这对中国是个好消息，特别是在美国最近出售64亿美元的军火给台湾的情况下。

　　中国表示，解除武器禁运是非常有意义的，这表示欧洲接受了其与中国在世界舞台上的平等地位。武器禁令不可能阻止中国发展为一个军事大国，国家的年度国防预算为700亿美元，但是五角大楼认为实际数字还要高一倍。并且，中国政府也认为这一禁令早已过时，并且带有侮辱性质，参考其他被欧盟武器禁运的国家就知道了，都是像刚果，朝鲜，伊朗，缅甸，索马里，苏丹和津巴布韦这样的糟糕国家。

　　欧洲当然会从跟中国的更加友好的关系中获利，近年来中国一直以来都对欧盟的外交要求和欧洲想进一步成为世界霸主的努力持冷淡态度。在2008年法国总统萨科奇会见西藏达赖喇嘛之后，中国取消了与欧盟首脑的会面。接着，去年12月，中国不顾欧盟的谴责以及神经病应该获得赦免的支持，处决了一位英国的毒品走私者，这是50年来中国处决的第一个欧洲人。年末，在哥本哈根气候变化会议上，中国蔑视欧洲减少温室气体排放的承诺的态度让欧盟领导人感到震惊。

　　北京更加强硬的反对态度是从欧盟希望实施新里斯本条约开始的，该条约旨在创建一个更加精简的机构，由一个强势总统和代表它发言的外长组成，这样将确保欧盟在世界舞台上更加强大的地位。但是中国历来试图利用欧盟内部分歧，以推动其经济增长，而不是把欧盟当成一个整体。所有欧盟最大的成员国都分别在拉拢中国，希望保证利益丰厚的贸易协议。

　　但是，现在欧洲的趋势发生了变化。欧洲改革伦敦中心论的缔造者Charles Grant，上个月发表了一篇文章声称欧洲在跟中国的贸易中应该坚持同一立场，从而中国再对欧盟无法再采取分而治之的策略。同时，他说，欧盟应该放弃中国这个“战略伙伴”，这对于拥有不同价值体系的双方是毫无意义的，同时欧盟应该聚焦在少数的中国能够跟其达成统一的问题上。

　　解除武器禁运可能没有这么简单，并且巨大的阻力已经形成。许多欧盟国家担心中国日益威胁台湾的行为，不愿意制裁其扩大军备的行为将使台湾更为一个更加孤立的岛。法国曾要求禁令在2004年取消，现在却表示禁令应该继续实施。欧洲议会也反对结束该禁令，直到中国停止销售武器给津巴布韦和苏丹这些被西方指责其政府从事或支持针对平民的暴力行为的国家。并且欧盟还必须考虑美国政府的立场，它反对对中国的武器禁运。

　　欧洲外交关系理事会的高级政策研究员和巴黎政治学院亚洲中心的总裁Franois Godement说，西班牙申请停止禁运明显是考虑不周，因为现在没有必要为中国做出第一次让步。“对中国未来的期望是带有某种不确定性的，”他说。“但是中国一直拒绝给予任何东西作为交换。” Godement说，欧洲人一直自欺欺人的以为中国会接受他们成为平等的伙伴，而实际上，中国很可能会继续探索的欧盟弱点，试图分裂欧盟。他说，欧洲需要对中国政策做出认真研究后再考虑禁令是否应该取消。“中国的强硬态度是件好事，它帮助欧盟大国认识到，他们不能单独行事，他们需要统一战线，”他说。

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1961947,00.html